自信過剰と職業上の選択 - himaginary’s diary

というNBER論文を元CEA委員長のエドワード・ラジアーが書いている（原題は「Overconfidence and Occupational Choice」）。 以下はその要旨。 A statistical theory of overconfidence is proposed and applied to the issue of occupational choice. Individuals who can choose whether to engage in an activity or not must estimate their performance. The estimates have error and that error has positive expectation among those who engage in the activity. As a