地学雑誌 Journal of Geography 01 10 1 (6)816―827 20 大地震発生の長期的予測 島 崎 邦 * 彦 Recent Progress in Long-term Earthquake Forecasts in Japan Kunihiko SHIMAZAKI * Abstract After the devastating Kobe earthquake of 1995, the Headquarters of Earthquake Research Promotion was established in the prime minister's office. Among the mandates given to the headquarters are collection, analysis, and evaluation o