タグ

統計とUSAに関するpetite-ceriseのブックマーク (1)

  • The Polls Missed Trump. We Asked Pollsters Why.

    The polls missed Donald Trump’s election. Individual polls missed, at the state level and nationally (though national polls weren’t far off). So did aggregated polls. So did poll-based forecasts such as ours. And so did exit polls. The miss wasn’t unprecedented or even, these days, all that unusual. Polls have missed recent elections in the U.S. and abroad by margins at least as big. Every poll, a

    The Polls Missed Trump. We Asked Pollsters Why.
    petite-cerise
    petite-cerise 2016/11/10
    FiveThirtyEightによる世論調査総崩れの原因分析(暫定)。僅差だったので統計上の誤差の範囲ではあるけれど、回答バイアスも一部には見られるよう、とのこと。
  • 1