What Is Money? - NYTimes.com
December 15, 2010 10:24 am December 15, 2010 10:24 am There’s a lot to be said about the right-wing attack on the Fed, none of it good. But I’d like to highlight one aspect of this discussion that has been striking me: the conservative focus on the evils of increasing the money supply. You hear it all the time: the Fed is printing money! Danger, Will Robinson! In some comments on this blog I see a
QE Madness
It has been really interesting to watch some of the commentary over quantitative easing by the Fed: while people like me see the Fed’s actions as way too timid, there’s a substantial faction out there that sees them as the end of Western civilization. Right now the most popular story on Bloomberg is Jim Rogers saying that Bernanke doesn’t understand economics, that he’s “debasing the currency.” I’
About The Yen
September 22, 2010 9:52 am September 22, 2010 9:52 am Everything old and wrong is new again. While American macroeconomists are reinventing the Treasury view, China is rediscovering Latin American-style structuralism — the long discredited belief that exchange rates have nothing to do with your trade balance. As evidence, they cite the alleged failure of the yen’s rise in the 80s to dent Japan’s s
Historical Statistics
September 4, 2010 9:59 am September 4, 2010 9:59 am Some readers have asked where I get the numbers that go into posts like this. The answer is the Millennial Edition of Historical Statistics of the United States. It’s a spectacular source. The bad news is that it’s paywalled. But if you’re at a university, or have access some other way — I guess there’s a print edition too, which libraries might
The Taylor Rule And The “Bond Bubble” (Wonkish) - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
Here’s a thought for all those insisting that there’s a bond bubble: how unreasonable are current long-term interest rates given current macroeconomic forecasts? I mean, at this point almost everyone expects unemployment to stay high for years to come, and there’s every reason to expect low or even negative inflation for a long time too. Shouldn’t that imply that the Fed will keep short-term rates
Japanese Monetary Policy (Wonkish)
Hmm. I see that Scott Sumner has a post heatedly attacking the idea that Japan is stuck in a deflationary trap; he insists that Japan has deflation because that’s what the Bank of Japan prefers: I was under the impression that the Bank of Japan was an ultra-conservative bank, and liked mild deflation. Indeed I thought that was pretty widely understood. I guess not. He guesses right: that’s not at
Deflation Risks
Good news: more people at the Fed are taking the risk of a Japanese-type trap seriously. But not all of them: “I think the fear of deflation in and of itself is probably overblown, from my perspective,” Charles I. Plosser, president of the Philadelphia Fed, said last week in an interview. He said that inflation expectations were “well anchored” and noted that $1 trillion in bank reserves was sitti
Nobody Understands The Liquidity Trap (Wonkish) - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
Sigh. In an otherwise useful article about divisions in the Fed, Jon Hilsenrath says this: The Fed is better equipped to solve some economic problems than others. As Mr. Bernanke noted in a now-famous 2002 speech, the Fed has the power to fight deflation—or falling wages and prices—by printing money. But the bank’s tools aren’t perfectly suited to reducing unemployment, which is influenced by a ra
Trending Toward Deflation
Inflation has been falling, but how close are we to deflation? I found myself wondering that after observing John Makin’s combusting coiffure, his prediction that we might see deflation this year. Here’s the thing: the usual way inflation is measured is by looking at the change from a year earlier. But if inflation is trending lower, that’s a lagging indicator — if prices have been falling for the
The madness of the inflation hawks
November 16, 2009 11:59 am November 16, 2009 11:59 am Wow. Matthew Yglesias catches David Ignatius worrying that the Fed may not have enough political support in its efforts to raise interest rates and fight inflation. As Matt correctly notes, this is a remote issue — unemployment is high, inflation is low, and the Fed has no business raising rates any time soon. This really can’t be overemphasize
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Disinflation Continues
Income And Life Expectancy
Inflation Delusions
Inflation, Deflation, Debt
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
Europe's Web of Debt - Graphic - NYTimes.com
Debt Is a Political Issue
Brad DeLong's Foolishness
Inflation Perceptions
Smells like deflation