(This post is elementary: it introduces a simple method of visualizing Bayesian calculations. In my defense, we've had other elementary posts before, and they've been found useful; plus, I'd really like this to be online somewhere, and it might as well be here.) I'll admit, those Monty-Hall-type problems invariably trip me up. Or at least, they do if I'm not thinking very carefully -- doing quite
![Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way) — LessWrong](https://cdn-ak-scissors.b.st-hatena.com/image/square/88cfaecdbf875645634b8cfec92856e529733925/height=288;version=1;width=512/https%3A%2F%2Fres.cloudinary.com%2Flesswrong-2-0%2Fimage%2Fupload%2Fv1654295382%2Fnew_mississippi_river_fjdmww.jpg)