Danger of death!
How you are unlikely to die ON FEBRUARY 15th DA14, an asteroid 45 metres across, will sail past the Earth at 7.8km a second (4.9 miles a second). At just 27,700km away, it is well within the range of communication satellites. It will be the closest encounter on record with an asteroid this big. In 1908 an asteroid estimated to be around 100 metres in diameter destroyed 2,000 km² of forest in Siber
Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way) — LessWrong
(This post is elementary: it introduces a simple method of visualizing Bayesian calculations. In my defense, we've had other elementary posts before, and they've been found useful; plus, I'd really like this to be online somewhere, and it might as well be here.) I'll admit, those Monty-Hall-type problems invariably trip me up. Or at least, they do if I'm not thinking very carefully -- doing quite
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Causality, wisdom of the crowd and scary thoughts · TomAF
The Monty Hall Problem
Monty hall problem extended.
Assessing Kurzweil: the results — LessWrong
Think Bayes 2e – Green Tea Press
Know when to fold ’em
Bayes' Rule
