というNBER論文が上がっている(H/T タイラー・コーエン)。原題は「How Credible is the Credibility Revolution?」で、著者はKevin Lang(ボストン大)。 以下は本文からの引用。 Suppose you test a null hypothesis, and the t turns out to be 1.96. Assume the model is correctly specified and the t − statistic is really distributed as t. What is the probability that the null hypothesis is actually true? ... ...if we don’t stop to think, most of us trained in the