10/6エントリで触れた、ECB ForumでのCharles Goodhartの発言を要約した元IMFエコノミストのChris Marshのツイートを紹介しておく。 Then came Goodhart who we will now quote at length: “The world at the moment is in really a rather extraordinary state because we have no General Theory of Inflation. We used to have two inter-connected theories. One of these was the Friedman monetary theory that inflation is always and everywhere a function of too

前回エントリで紹介したリカルド・ライスのツイートで予告された続きのスレッドがつぶやかれていたので、以下に紹介してみる。 For most surveys of expected inflation, is the median a good statistical forecaster of future inflation? Usually not. But does this mean that expected inflation does not matter to understand inflation? Absolutely not. Forecasting is not the same as understanding, or mattering. The classic example are stock prices: they can be completely d

10/2エントリでタイラー・コーエン経由でリンクしたラッド論文への反応のうち、リカルド・ライス（Ricardo Reis）のツイッターでの反応を紹介してみる。 Start from the classical model in micro 101, the foundation of modern econ. A fundamental result (going back centuries) is that inflation is indeterminate. That means that if people expect inflation of 100%, inflation will be (close to) 100%. Why? https://doi.org/10.2307/3440167 If everyone expects prices to double, ev

前回エントリで紹介したギャニオンらによる“本当に曲がっているフィリップス曲線”を、別のやり方で示した豪州準備銀行の表題の論文を少し前にMostly Economicsが紹介していた。論文の原題は「Is the Phillips Curve Still a Curve? Evidence from the Regions」で、著者は同行のJames BishopとEmma Greenland。 以下はその要旨。 The way in which wages respond to very low rates of unemployment remains a key source of uncertainty in Australia, partly due to the lack of historical evidence to draw upon. To help fill this

10/2エントリで紹介したツイートの補足のような形でジョセフ・ギャニオンが、9月にCEPRとPIIEに上げた表題の論文にリンクしている。論文の原題は「Low inflation bends the Phillips curve around the world: Extended results」で*1、共著者はMITのKristin Forbesとモルガン・スタンレーのChristopher G. Collins。 以下はPIIE版の要旨。 This paper revises and extends PIIE Working Paper 20-6. It continues to find strong support for a Phillips curve that becomes nonlinear when inflation is "low"—which our baseli