Econbrowser: Oh yes it's a recession all right
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP fell at a 3.8% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2008. A -3.8% annual growth rate was a bit better than the consensus forecast of -5.4%, but no cause for cheer there. The discrepancy is entirely accounted for by inventory accumulation, which contributed +1.3% to the 2008:Q4 figure. Production (which is what GDP measures) was bigg
Econbrowser: What happened to oil markets on Monday?
Here's how it was reported, for example, in the Wall Street Journal: Reaction to the Wall Street bailout and frenzied last-minute trading in the oil market sent crude prices soaring by more than $16 a barrel, the biggest one-day jump ever. The late-day spike, which shoved oil up 16% to $120.92 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, offered an illustration of Wall Street's hard-to-predict mo
Econbrowser: Recession indicators
« A Different Look at the Labor Market | Main | The Dollar and the Trade Deficit: How Does Productivity Fit In? » August 24, 2008 Recession indicators Many people may not care whether our current situation meets the formal definition of a recession, but as I've explained previously, you should. Here's a summary of how I see the economy at the moment. I begin by discussing a new paper by UCLA Profe
Econbrowser: Why new oil price highs?
« Consumer Sentiment Indices: Do They Matter? | Main | Recession indicators » April 17, 2008 Why new oil price highs? West Texas Intermediate closed today above $115/barrel. Does that reflect changes in the fundamentals of world supply and demand? My answer is no. Let me acknowledge first that there has been some interesting news about world oil supplies. Nate Hagens noted that, although global o
Econbrowser: Energy use in Japan
« The Compleat UberNerd | Main | English for fun and profit » July 09, 2007 Energy use in Japan I was in Japan a week ago, giving lectures at some of the universities in Tokyo and the Bank of Japan. I couldn't help but be struck by how differently energy is used in Tokyo compared with southern California. Since 1999, total petroleum consumption has declined by 1% per year in Japan, while in the U
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Econbrowser: Money creation and the Fed
Econbrowser: Why Does It <I>Feel</I> Like a Recession?
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/03/tslf.html
Econbrowser: Sky's eye over the Arabian Desert
Econbrowser: Oil and the dollar
Econbrowser: Worse than 1998?
Econbrowser: Bernanke on the economic outlook
Econbrowser: Thinking about import prices, the dollar, and inflation
Econbrowser: Diverging Trends in Recent Employment Measures
Econbrowser: Slower employment growth
Econbrowser: The Fundamentals Are...
Econbrowser: Worrisome data on industrial production
Econbrowser: Where did all that GDP growth come from?
Econbrowser: Cantarell in decline
Econbrowser: Housing market review