• • • • • • • P H1 | D ( )= P D | H1 ( )P H1 ( ) P D∩Hi ( ) i=1 N ∑ = P D | H1 ( )P H1 ( ) P D | Hi ( )P Hi ( ) i=1 N ∑ = P D | H1 ( )P H1 ( ) P D ( ) P H | D ( )= P D | H ( )P H ( ) P D ( ) • • ( ) = ( ) ( ) ( ) ∝ ( ) ( ) • – – – • – – – • • • • • • • • • • • ( ) = ⋅ ⋅ − ( ) − ≈ ⋅ − ( ) − • ( ) = ⋅ ⋅ − ( ) − ∝ ⋅ − ( ) • • • ( ) ≈ ⋅ − ( ) − = α − ( ) β − ( ) α + β − ( ) α β ( ) = ⋅ α− ⋅ − ( ) β− <