New Frontiers in Economic Barbarism 経済学的野蛮主義の新境地 I’ve written quite a lot about the way much of the macroeconomics community has descended into a Dark Age, forgetting the things they used to know. I was originally set off by the way some economists were propounding Say’s Law ― the idea, refuted 75 years ago, that all income must be spent and hence that supply creates its own demand ― as a profound

Catastrophic Credibility 破滅的な信頼性 A little while ago Ben Bernanke responded to suggestions that the Fed needed to do more ― in particular, that it should raise the inflation target ― by insisting that this would undermine the institution’s “hard-won credibility”. May I say that what recent events in Europe, and to some extent in the US, really suggest is that central banks have too much credibility

I Am Not Your Mirror Image/October 12, 2011, 5:23 PM I Am Not Your Mirror Image 僕はあんたの合わせ鏡じゃない Russ Roberts tries to debunk my explanation of the reasons to believe in a broadly Keynesian view of the world ― and reveals more than he intended. ラス・ロバーツが、広い意味でのケインズ主義的世界観を信じる理由に関する僕の説明の矛盾を暴こうとしている――そして、彼が意図したもの以上のことを露にしてしまっている。 First, a few points. Roberts treats my statement that we have a lot of evi

Economic Tribalism 経済的部族主義 Hmm. This seems to be meta Saturday, with reactions to how people think – or, all too often, don’t think ― about economics taking center stage. うーん。世の中心的な地位を占める経済学に関して、人々がどのように考えているのか――また、あまりにもよくあることなんだが、考えていないか――今度出した本の感想を読んでいるとメタな土曜日になりそうだ。 Justin Fox has an interesting post documenting something I more or less knew, but am glad to see confirmed: People aren’t very rec

Does Economics Still Progress?/September 27, 2011, 4:03 PM Does Economics Still Progress? 経済学は今でも進歩しているのか？ In a few hours Sylvia Nasar and I will have an on-stage dialogue at the 92nd Street Y, centered around her new book The Grand Pursuit, which offers a set of fascinating portraits of the makers of economics. (Irving Fisher invented the Rolodex?) But as I was reading her book I have to admit th

More Thoughts On Weaponized Keynesianism/October 29, 2011, 2:20 PM More Thoughts On Weaponized Keynesianism 武装ケインズ主義についてさらに考える Let me follow up a bit on the sudden discovery by Republicans that cuts in government spending cost jobs and drive up the unemployment rate – as long as the spending is on destruction rather than construction. Oh, and thanks to commenters for reminding me of Barney Frank’s

Different Slopes for Different Folks/February 10, 2012, 10:32 AM Different Slopes for Different Folks 異なる人々には異なる傾きを David Frum, in his review of Charles Murray, quotes a passage in which Murray dismisses the notion that reduced work might be the result of reduced wages: デヴィッド・フラムが、チャールズ・マーレイ本の書評の中で、仕事が減ったのは賃金が減った結果だという考えを却下した一説を引用している： Put yourself in the place of a [working-class white] man who i

The Taylor Rule And The “Bond Bubble” (Wonkish)/August 22, 2010, 5:02 PM The Taylor Rule And The “Bond Bubble” (Wonkish)　テイラー・ルールと「国債バブル」（オタク風） Here’s a thought for all those insisting that there’s a bond bubble: how unreasonable are current long-term interest rates given current macroeconomic forecasts? I mean, at this point almost everyone expects unemployment to stay high for years to come, and

Lake Wobegon, Europe ヨーロッパのレイク・ウォビゴン村 Ezra Klein reports on his conversations with Germans: エズラ・クラインがドイツ人と行った対話について報告してくれている： The German embrace of austerity raises an obvious question: If Southern Europe is to cut and tax, how will they grow? The German answer, put simply, is, “like we did.” Ten years ago, the Germans are quick to note, unemployment in Germany was 10 percent and structural defici

Things That Never Happened In The History Of Macroeconomics/December 5, 2011, 5:28 PM Things That Never Happened In The History Of Macroeconomics マクロ経済学の歴史に起こらなかったこと Via Mark Thoma, David Warsh finally says what someone needed to say: Friedrich Hayek is not an important figure in the history of macroeconomics. マーク・トーマのブログによると、デビッド・ウォルシュがついに誰かが言わないといけないことを言ってくれた：フリードリッヒ・ハイエクはマクロ経済学の歴史において重要な人物ではないと

Oh! What A Lovely War! オー！ なんとステキな戦争！ World War II is the great natural experiment in the effects of large increases in government spending, and as such has always served as an important positive example for those of us who favor an activist approach to a depressed economy. Christy Romer is very much on the same wavelength. 第二次世界大戦は政府支出を激増させることによる効果を示す壮大な自然実験だ。そして、それは、経済が落ち込んでいる時に積極的なアプローチを取ることを支持

The End of Eurosclerosis ユーロ動脈硬化症の終わり I’ve written a number of times about the weird way American perceptions of Europe seem stuck in the past. It’s common ― especially on the right, but more broadly too ― to see Europe as a land of stagnant economies and lack of jobs. This vision had some truth in the 1990s, but was becoming less and less true even before the crisis, which hit US employment much

Default In A Liquidity Trap (Very Wonkish)/July 25, 2011, 3:26 PM Default In A Liquidity Trap (Very Wonkish) 流動性の罠にある時のデフォルト（超オタク風） Nick Rowe asks a good question: if we took our models seriously, what would we expect the effects of threatened default to be on the larger economy? His answer is that expected default should work just like expected inflation, which means that if anything it should be

3.5 Out of 4 4つの内の3.5 A moment of self-reflection: to what extent has this slump played out the way I thought it would? 自己反省の時間だ：私はどの程度まで、この不況の成り行きについて予想できていたのか？ I’d think of myself as having held, from early days, four main views that were at odds with a substantial number of other commentators. They were: 私は、初めのころから、相当な数の他のコメンテーターとは対照的な4つの主要な見解を持っていたと自身として考えている。それらは次のようなものだ： 1. The slump would b

1937! 1937! 1937! The Telegraph has a leaked draft of the eurozone rescue plan for Greece. The financial engineering is Rube Goldbergish and unconvincing. But here’s what leaped out at me: テレグラフ誌が、ギリシアのためのユーロ圏の救済プランに関するリークされた草稿を持っている。その金融的な技術工学はルーブ・ゴールドバーグ・マシン的であり、説得力がない。 9. All euro area Member States will adhere strictly to the agreed fiscal targets, improve competitiveness and address macro-eco

The Political Economy of the Lesser Depression/July 16, 2011, 9:07 AM The Political Economy of the Lesser Depression 「小恐慌」の政治経済学 Everyone in the forecasting business is scrambling to mark down both their estimates of second-quarter growth and their forecasts for later in the year. Goldman Sachs (no link) was pretty optimistic a few months ago; now they’ve grown quite pessimistic: 経済予想業界のあらゆる人が、第2四

Why Are Wages Still Rising? (Wonkish)July 9, 2011, 4:17 PM Why Are Wages Still Rising? (Wonkish) なぜ賃金は今でも上昇しているのか？（オタク風） One reason comparisons between current events and the 1970s are so wrong ― and fears that stagflation is just around the corner are so wrong (and have been wrong for three years running) ― is the absence of any surge in wages: 現在の出来事を1970年代になぞらえるのが大間違いである理由の一つ―そして、スタグフレーションが差し迫っ

Core Logic コアの論理 Since I’m taking a break from shoveling, I thought I might take a few minutes to address an issue that seems to confuse many people: the idea of core inflation. Why do we need such a concept, and how should it be measured? 私は最近掘り下げれていないんだが、多くの人々を混乱させているように思える問題を位置づけるべく数分かけてみようと思った。それはコア・インフレについての観念のことだ。なぜ、こんな概念が必要なのか？　そして、それはどのように測られるべきなのか？ So: core inflation is usually measured b

Bubble, Bubble, Fraud and Trouble バブル、バブル、詐欺、トラブル The other day my barber asked me whether he should put all his money in Bitcoin. And the truth is that if he’d bought Bitcoin, say, a year ago he’d be feeling pretty good right now. On the other hand, Dutch speculators who bought tulip bulbs in 1635 also felt pretty good for a while, until tulip prices collapsed in early 1637. 先日、理容師に全財産をビットコインにつぎ込

Who Are The Rentiers? 利子生活者とは誰なのか？ Following up on my rentier post and the eurocentric followup, a question: who are we talking about? That is, who stands to gain from deflation, and lose if inflation is, say, 4 percent over a period of 10 years? Is it little old ladies living on fixed incomes, and salt of the earth workers who have scrimped and saved? 私の利子生活者についての記事とヨーロッパ中心主義についての記事の付け足し。疑問：誰について