「Expansions Don't Die of Old Age」というブログエントリを先月28日にFrancis Dieboldが上げている。 As the expansion ages, there's progressively more discussion of whether its advanced age makes it more likely to end. The answer is no. More formally, postwar U.S. expansion hazards are basically flat, in contrast to contraction hazards, which are sharply increasing. Of course the present expansion will eventually end, and it