Rethinking Japan
The IMF held a small roundtable discussion on Japan yesterday, and in preparation for the event I thought it was a good idea to update my discussion of Japan – not so much about the question of whether Abenomics is working / will work (unclear, don’t know) as about the current nature of the Japanese problem. It’s a bit self-centered, but I find it useful to approach this subject by asking how I wo
Regime Change in Switzerland
January 16, 2015 12:14 am January 16, 2015 12:14 am Blogging will be limited for the next few days, unless I can resolve the tech problems here in Delhi. But I did want to say something about the Swiss de-pegging, beyond what I put in the column. These days it’s fairly widely accepted that it’s very hard for central banks to get traction at the zero lower bound unless they can convince investors t
Money in a Time of Zero
September 3, 2014 9:16 am September 3, 2014 9:16 am My old teacher Charles Kindleberger used to say that anyone who spends too much time thinking about international money goes mad; he meant that people start obsessing about the international role of the dollar or whatever, and start to think that it’s the most important thing in the world, when it’s actually fairly trivial. What he didn’t say, bu
Bitcoin Is Evil
December 28, 2013 2:35 pm December 28, 2013 2:35 pm It’s always important, and always hard, to distinguish positive economics — how things work — from normative economics — how things should be. Indeed, on many of the macro issues I’ve written about it has been obvious that large numbers of economists can’t bring themselves to make that distinction; they dislike activist government on political gr
Secular Stagnation, Coalmines, Bubbles, and Larry Summers
I’m pretty annoyed with Larry Summers right now. His presentation at the IMF Research Conference is, justifiably, getting a lot of attention. And here’s the thing: I’ve been thinking along the same lines, and have, I think, hinted at this analysis in various writings. But Larry’s formulation is much clearer and more forceful, and altogether better, than anything I’ve done. Curse you, Red Baron Lar
Abenomics and Interest Rates: A Finger Exercise (Wonkish)
Japan has announced a long-term turn to easier money and a higher inflation target. Stocks are up (if bouncing around a lot), the yen is down, but long-term interest rates are somewhat higher (although still very low). Is this a puzzle or a problem? Richard Koo, Nick Rowe, and Noah Smith have all weighed in. So I guess I should put in my bit. Basically, I think Rowe is mostly right; Koo isn’t maki
Monetary Policy In A Liquidity Trap
I’ve made it clear that I very much approve of Japan’s new monetary aggressiveness. But I gather that some readers are confused – haven’t I been arguing that monetary policy is ineffective in a liquidity trap? The brief answer is that current policy is ineffective, but that you can still get traction if you can change investors’ beliefs about expected future monetary policy – which was the moral o
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