Methodology - NYTimes.com
Our Senate forecasts proceed in seven distinct stages, each of which is described in detail below. For more detail on some of the terms below please see our FiveThirtyEight glossary. Stage 1. Weighted Polling AveragePolls released into the public domain are collected together and averaged, with the components weighted on three factors:* Recency. More recent polls receive a higher weight. The formu
Statistics, probability, and Nate Silver • Kevin Fox
November 6, 2012 Statistics, probability, and Nate Silver In the last few days Nate Silver has become the third most talked-about man in politics, with pundits left and right saying he’s audaciously staked his professional reputation on an Obama win. This is sad and shows how little we understand about the nature of statistics and probability, even the more educated among us. Nate’s electoral prog
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