Do that 100 times; each total has 1% probability, and now you can figure out the probability that you will ship on any given date. Now watch what happens: In the case of the mythical perfect estimator, all velocities are 1. Dividing by a velocity which is always 1 has no effect. Thus, all rounds of the simulation give the same ship date, and that ship date has 100% probability. Just like in the fa