Why is Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) still used?

•Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has been widely used for 50 years. •PSHA rests on assumptions now known to conflict with earthquake physics. •Many damaging earthquakes occur in regions rated low-risk by PSHA hazard maps. •Seismologists and engineers should clearly acknowledge PSHA’s shortcomings. •Reliance on PSHA for decisions that affect public safety should cease. Even though it h

[kumicit]

リスクを金融的に取引するには確率が必要だ。それがたとえ架空であろうが根拠がなかろうが、フェアに算出されたという合意あるいは信念が共有されていれば、取引は成立する、という都合があって...