A Simulation on Potential Secondary Spread of Novel Coronavirus in an Exported Country Using a Stochastic Epidemic SEIR Model

Version 1 : Received: 12 February 2020 / Approved: 14 February 2020 / Online: 14 February 2020 (02:34:55 CET) A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists. Iwata, K.; Miyakoshi, C. A Simulation on Potential Secondary Spread of Novel Coronavirus in an Exported Country Using a Stochastic Epidemic SEIR Model. Journal of Clinical Medicine 2020, 9, 944, doi:10.3390/jcm9040944. Iwata, K.; Miyako

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“ Among 45 possible scenarios we prepared, the worst scenario resulted in total number of persons recovered or removed to be 997 (95% CrI 990-1,000) at day 100 and maximum number of symptomatic infectious patients per day of 335 (95% CrI 232-478)”