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I have a busy few days at the upcoming ASSA meeting in Boston. For those interested, I will be involved in the following public events: Jan 03, 2015 8:00 am, Sheraton Boston, Independence Ballroom American Economic Association
As my regular blog readers know, Paul Krugman and I often do not see eye to eye. So, once in a while, it might be useful to point out those times when we actually agree. In a recent post on commodity prices, Paul says, "Volatile prices are volatile, which is why they shouldn’t be used to determine monetary policy." I agree, and I suspect many other macroeconomists would as well. I once wrote a p
My freshman seminar starts today. Here are the books we are reading this year (in this order): The Worldly Philosophers, by Robert Heilbronr Reinventing the Bazaar: A Natural History of Markets, by John McMillan Thinking Strategically, by Avinash Dixit and Barry Nalebuff Capitalism and Freedom, by Milton Friedman Equality and Efficiency: The Big Tradeoff, by Arthur Okun Nudge, by Richard Thaler a
This scatterplot is from Paul Krugman. x is the core inflation rate minus the unemployment rate. y is the federal funds rate. It uses data from 1988 to 2008. This graph is motivated by a version of the Taylor rule I once proposed. Paul uses a different sample than I did, so he gets slightly different parameter values. Nonetheless, I think Paul and I agree that this equation provides a reasona
Some pundits, reflecting on the looming U.S. budget deficits, claim that Americans are vastly undertaxed compared with other major nations. I was wondering, to what extent is that true? The most common metric for answering this question is taxes as a percentage of GDP. However, high tax rates tend to depress GDP. Looking at taxes as a percentage of GDP may mislead us into thinking we can increa
Now is the time of year when prospective PhD students in economics are deciding which graduate program to attend. The decision is often hard. If you are in that position, here are a few recommendations about things to think about: 1. Start with the rankings. For some recent rankings of economics departments, click here and here and here. All ranking systems are imperfect, but other things equa
Source: The Economist. Click on graphic to enlarge. Americans, as well as citizens of many other advanced nations, now spend about twice as many years in retirement as they did a generation or two ago. During that time, they expect the government to provide them with income support and healthcare. Is it any wonder that we face serious fiscal problems? I hope the president's fiscal commission ma
From my inbox: Dear Dr. Mankiw,I've been using your introductory textbook for a couple years. I tell students that in five years if all they remember about economics is the first chapter, then their efforts will not be wasted. To help them remember, I created this acrostic device. It finally occurred to me that it might be useful to others. So if you like it, feel free to use it, in class or in th
Here is the abstract to my new paper, coauthored with Matthew Weinzierl, The Optimal Taxation of Height: A Case Study of Utilitarian Income Redistribution. Should the income tax system include a tax credit for short taxpayers and a tax surcharge for tall ones? This paper shows that the standard utilitarian framework for tax policy analysis answers this question in the affirmative. This result has
The estate tax is now gone, one of the goals of President Bush. But under current law, it will come back next year. As I recall, the reason for this peculiar state of affairs was not, as Paul Krugman suggests, an attempt to hold down the official cost of the Bush tax cuts. Indeed, back in 2001, what would happen in 2011 was outside the 10-year budget window, so rigging the official cost could no
About Me Name: Greg Mankiw Location: United States I am the Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University. I use this blog to keep in touch with my current and former students. Teachers and students at other schools, as well as others interested in economic issues, are welcome to use this resource. View my complete profile Timeless Words of Wisdom I don't care who writes a nation's
The 7th edition of my intermediate macroeconomics textbook is coming out this summer, ready for fall classes. As well as being updated for current events, including the recent housing bubble and financial crisis, the book has a new chapter, called A Dynamic Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply. The model is intended to give the student a basic understanding of modern DSGE models. You can
The AIG bonuses now being debated in Congress and everywhere else represent about .001 percent of annual GDP. If a typical Congressman spent that fraction of a 2000 hour work year on the topic, it would consume only about 1 minute of his or her time. Yes, I know, that calculation is silly in many ways, but here is my point: Regardless of how outraged you are about the AIG bonuses, it is probably n
Small, says Richard Clarida: Because of the financial crisis and the severe damage caused to the system of credit intermediation through banks and securitization, policy multipliers are likely to be disappointingly small compared with historical estimates of their importance. Many of you will remember from Econ 101 the idea of the Keynesian multiplier, which is that the impact of traditional macro
Econ prof Bill Seyfried of Rollins College emails me: Here's an interesting fact that you may not have seen yet. The M1 money multiplier just slipped below 1. So each $1 increase in reserves (monetary base) results in the money supply increasing by $0.95 (OK, so banks have substantially increased their holding of excess reserves while the M1 money supply hasn't changed by much).Thanks. About Me Na
With the Fed having cut its target interest rate today to a range of zero to 1/4 percent, many people will be asking whether the central bank has run out of ammunition. A good question. Obviously, the next step is not going to be further cuts in the federal funds rate. But there is still more the Fed can do. Notice this passage in the Fed's press release (emphasis added): The Federal Reserve will
Source. Click on the graphic to enlarge. Each block in this histogram represents one year of stock returns, using data since 1825. The most recent observation, based on 2008 returns to date, is the dark block in the far left tail. The figure gives a good sense of how historically extraordinary this year's bad news has been. By the way, from February 2003, when a certain blogger was appointed to ch
What would you call a group of economists who are skeptical of regulating mortgage markets, who think unemployment insurance and unions increase unemployment, who say that tax hikes retard economic growth, and who believe that the recovery from the Great Depression was a monetary phenomenon rather than the result of New Deal fiscal policy? No, it is not a right-wing cabal. It's Team Obama. Here's
This picture from Paul Krugman is deeply troubling. It shows the real interest rates on corporate bonds, with the expected rate of inflation from the spread between 20-year TIPS and 20-year Treasury rates. The Fed is supposed to cut real interest rates as the economy weakens, but the opposite seems to be happening. The problem is that the Fed is close to its zero lower bound on the federal funds r
Here is a question that you may have been thinking about: How do the different candidates' tax plans affect Greg Mankiw's incentive to work? Okay, you probably haven't been thinking about this. But I have, because, after all, I am Greg Mankiw. And if you are here reading my blog, maybe you have some interest in the random thoughts running through my brain. So bear with me. Let me start with my per
The conclusion of today's ec 10 lecture: In today's lecture, I have discussed a number of reasons that right-leaning and left-leaning economists differ in their policy views, even though they share an intellectual framework for analysis. Here is a summary. The right sees large deadweight losses associated with taxation and, therefore, is worried about the growth of government as a share in the eco
This year's Nobel Prize in economics goes to Paul Krugman. Here is a description of the contributions for which he is justly lauded today. Congratulations, Paul! To learn more about the newest laureate, you can read an analysis of Paul's research contributions and an analysis of his op-ed pieces. Update: Justin Fox of Time Magazine says I predicted this prize back in 1999. I don't recall that prec
There is broad agreement among economists that what the financial system needs right now is not only an injection of liquidity but also a recapitalization. The essence of the current financial crisis is that many firms bet that housing prices would not fall; the prices fell nonetheless; and now these firms have too little capital to perform the crucial function of financial intermediation. (As an
A comment on another blog: Mankiw is a Krugman-esque liberal who gets muddled by his socialist ideology at times.That is odd: I always thought of myself as a Friedman-esque classical liberal who gets muddled by my new-Keynesian theorizing at times. About Me Name: Greg Mankiw Location: United States I am the Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University. I use this blog to keep in to
Click on the graph to enlarge and see better an unusual phenomenon: inflation-adjusted interest rates below zero. Nothing in economic theory precludes negative real interest rates, or even suggests they should be anomalous. Nominal interest rates cannot be negative, because people would just hold cash instead of bonds,* but real interest rates can be negative. If real interest rates were very nega
Some of you have noticed that the comments section is gone. I disabled that feature of the blog. A friend has asked me to explain why. This blog started on a lark. It was originally set up for my students in ec 10. After a few weeks, however, the existence of this blog became more widely known, and the readership started to grow. One day last week, more than 20,000 visitors stopped by. This is now
A reader emails me: I've read your "Advice for..." blog posts with interest. They're truly helpful. But now I've finished the job market and I have a tenure-track position at a research university. Can you post an "Advice for Junior Faculty" next? Okay, here goes: Your focus should be on getting papers published in refereed journals. Everything else is secondary. Do not be a perfectionist. It is t
We lost a great human being today. Here is what I wrote about him in 1998. The Economist of the Century By N. Gregory Mankiw Anyone who thinks that ideas matter (and who doesn't?) naturally takes an interest in people who generate more than their share. Milton Friedman is one of them. As he approaches his 86th birthday, Friedman remains one of the world's most influential living economists. Fans o
In today's Wall Street Journal, economist Bill Easterly channels Friedrich Hayek to take on economist Jeffrey Sachs. An excerpt: Hayek's great book [The Road to Serfdom] is all about the dangers of large-scale state economic planning, courageously written in 1944 when Soviet central planning, technocratic socialism and administrative control of the wartime economy appealed as a peacetime model to
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