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This article is part of our Beijing Olympics series. In 1902, a 20-year-old figure skater from England named Madge Syers showed up somewhere that no official from the International Skating Union expected her to be: center ice at the world championships. Though figure skating competitions were hardly a new thing — they took place throughout the latter half of the 19th century — a formal world champ
This is an archived site and is no longer being updated. New 538 articles can be found at www.abcnews.com/538.
You’ll notice that I’ve mostly been focusing here on the whats and not the hows or the whys. In other words, I’m describing what combinations of states could plausibly produce winning maps for Trump given the possibility of a polling error, but not describing why such a polling error might occur. To some extent, that’s on purpose. If pollsters knew what the source of a polling error might be, they
This is an archived site and is no longer being updated. New 538 articles can be found at www.abcnews.com/538. Here we are, in the middle of a pandemic, staring out our living room windows like aquarium fish. The question on everybody’s minds: How bad will this really get? Followed quickly by: Seriously, how long am I going to have to live cooped up like this? We all want answers. And, given the v
This is an archived site and is no longer being updated. New 538 articles can be found at www.abcnews.com/538. The Real Story Of 2016 What reporters — and lots of data geeks, too — missed about the election, and what they’re still getting wrong. On Friday at noon, a Category 5 political cyclone that few journalists saw coming will deposit Donald Trump atop the Capitol Building, where he’ll be swor
Clinton collapsed in the 50 least-educated counties These results are every bit as striking: Clinton lost ground relative to Obama in 47 of the 50 counties — she did an average of 11 percentage points worse, in fact. These are really the places that won Donald Trump the presidency, especially given that a fair number of them are in swing states such as Ohio and North Carolina. He improved on Mitt
The polls missed Donald Trump’s election. Individual polls missed, at the state level and nationally (though national polls weren’t far off). So did aggregated polls. So did poll-based forecasts such as ours. And so did exit polls. The miss wasn’t unprecedented or even, these days, all that unusual. Polls have missed recent elections in the U.S. and abroad by margins at least as big. Every poll, a
This is an archived site and is no longer being updated. New 538 articles can be found at www.abcnews.com/538. Here’s the Electoral College map we’re going to end up with, assuming that every uncalled state goes to the candidate leading in the vote count there as of 4 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday. There’s a sea of red for President-elect Donald Trump. He earned 306 electoral votes and became the
This is an archived site and is no longer being updated. New 538 articles can be found at www.abcnews.com/538. The final match of the 2016 Haru Basho — one of six professional sumo tournaments held each year — was a day-15 championship-deciding showdown between the sport’s top yokozuna.1 Hakuho, the White Peng,2 the dominant force in sumo over the past decade, was 13-1 in the tournament and hadn’t
Donald Trump T-shirts were for sale before a rally for the candidate in Carmel, Indiana, on Monday. Michael Conroy / AP It’s been extremely common for news accounts to portray Donald Trump’s candidacy as a “working-class” rebellion against Republican elites. There are elements of truth in this perspective: Republican voters, especially Trump supporters, are unhappy about the direction of the econo
This is an archived site and is no longer being updated. New 538 articles can be found at www.abcnews.com/538. Little p-value What are you trying to say Of significance? — Stephen Ziliak, Roosevelt University economics professor How many statisticians does it take to ensure at least a 50 percent chance of a disagreement about p-values? According to a tongue-in-cheek assessment by statistician Geor
Let’s keep walking, past three examples of Georges Seurat’s pointillism and another van Gogh, past Henri Rousseau’s haunting “The Dream” and “The Sleeping Gypsy.” Look to your right, and you’ll see my personal favorite painting in the collection: “Les Demoiselles d’Avignon.” Pablo Picasso, “Les Demoiselles d’Avignon,” Paris, June-July 1907. Courtesy of Moma.org “Les Demoiselles” is Pablo Picasso’s
This is an archived site and is no longer being updated. New 538 articles can be found at www.abcnews.com/538. Science Isn’t Broken It’s just a hell of a lot harder than we give it credit for. Graphics by Ritchie King If you follow the headlines, your confidence in science may have taken a hit lately. Peer review? More like self-review. An investigation in November uncovered a scam in which resear
Chicago is one of the most diverse cities in the country. It is also the most segregated. Scott Olson / Getty Images Chicago is one of the most diverse cities in the country. It is also the most segregated. Scott Olson / Getty Images When I was a freshman at the University of Chicago in 1996, I heard the same thing again and again: Do not leave the boundaries of Hyde Park. Do not go north of 47th
Part of the first Twilight Struggle test map, circa 2002. Courtesy of Ananda Gupta Part of the first Twilight Struggle test map, circa 2002. Courtesy of Ananda Gupta The game ends in nuclear war only about 5 percent of the time. That’s a good thing. It gives Ananda Gupta faith in humanity. The game is called Twilight Struggle, and it’s the top-ranked board game in the world. It occupies the No. 1
A store displays banners and placards announcing its closure in Washington, D.C., in 2011. JEWEL SAMAD / AFP via Getty Images One vacant shop and another shutting down in Los Angeles in 2009. MARK RALSTON / AFP via Getty Images Talk to anyone in Silicon Valley these days, and it’s hard to go more than two minutes without hearing about “disruption.” Uber is disrupting the taxi business. Airbnb is d
This is an archived site and is no longer being updated. New 538 articles can be found at www.abcnews.com/538. In their Group F World Cup match late last month, Argentina and Iran were still deadlocked after 90 minutes. With the game in stoppage time and the score tied at 0-0, Lionel Messi took the ball near the right corner of the penalty area, held it for a moment, then broke left, found his sea
This is an archived site and is no longer being updated. New 538 articles can be found at www.abcnews.com/538. FiveThirtyEight’s World Cup forecasting model uses ESPN’s Soccer Power Index (SPI) — a system that combines game- and player-based ratings to estimate a team’s overall skill level — to calculate odds of each country’s performance during the two stages of the World Cup. The probabilities a
This is an archived site and is no longer being updated. New 538 articles can be found at www.abcnews.com/538. Picture Mildred, Agnes, Ethel and Blanche. Perhaps you imagine the Golden Girls or your grandmother’s poker game. These are names for women of age, wisdom and distinction. The median living Mildred in the United States is now 78 years old. Now imagine Madison, Sydney, Alexa and Hailey. Th
Bob Ross in 1985. "The Joy of Painting," the Bob Ross name and images are trademarks of Bob Ross Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission. Bob Ross in 1985. The Joy of Painting, the Bob Ross name and images are trademarks of Bob Ross Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission. Bob Ross was a consummate teacher. He guided fans along as he painted “happy trees,” “almighty mountains” and “f
This is an archived site and is no longer being updated. New 538 articles can be found at www.abcnews.com/538. FiveThirtyEight is a data journalism organization. Let me explain what we mean by that, and why we think the intersection of data and journalism is so important. If you’re a casual reader of FiveThirtyEight, you may associate us with election forecasting, and in particular with the 2012 p
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