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Bubble, Bubble, Fraud and Trouble バブル、バブル、詐欺、トラブル The other day my barber asked me whether he should put all his money in Bitcoin. And the truth is that if he’d bought Bitcoin, say, a year ago he’d be feeling pretty good right now. On the other hand, Dutch speculators who bought tulip bulbs in 1635 also felt pretty good for a while, until tulip prices collapsed in early 1637. 先日、理容師に全財産をビットコインにつぎ込
A Further Note On Deficits and the Printing Press/March 26, 2011, 3:50 pm A Further Note On Deficits and the Printing Press 赤字予算と輪転機のことでもう一言 A followup on my printing press post: I think one way to clarify my difference with, say, Jamie Galbraith is this: imagine that at some future date, say in 2017, we’re more or less at full employment and have a federal deficit equal to 6 percent of GDP. Does
The Dollar and the Recovery (Wonkish) ドルと景気回復(専門的) Good news in today’s jobs report, and the dollar shot higher. But a stronger dollar will make US goods less competitive, and act as a brake on further recovery. So how do we think about this? How much of the US recovery will be diffused to other countries via dollar strength and a bigger trade deficit? 今日の雇用統計でいいニュースが入ってきたことで、ドル高が進んだ。でも、ドル高はアメリカ製品
Greenish Shootlets in Southern Europe (Implicitly Wonkish) 南ヨーロッパの芽吹き(言うまでもなく専門的) There are hints of recovery in some of Europe’s austerity-stricken economies. Even Greece is finally showing some signs of an uptick. And you know one thing is going to happen: some people will say, “See — growth despite austerity! Krugman and the Keynesians were wrong!” 緊縮財政が直撃した南ヨーロッパ諸国のいくつかで景気回復の兆しがある。ギリシアですらようやく経
Shinzo and the Invisibles シンゾーと見えない人たち Brad DeLong is puzzled by some of what Ken Rogoff has to say about Japan, specifically his warning that Japan could face an attack from invisible bond vigilantes if it doesn’t quickly tackle long-run fiscal issues. I’m puzzled too, although it’s not just Rogoff — quite a few sensible people say similar things, and the truth is that I said such things about th
Unbalanced in Basel バーゼルの不均衡 Ambrose Evans-Pritchard draws our attention to a speech by Jaime Caruana, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements. It is indeed a quite remarkable speech — and I mean that in the worst way; it’s a perfect illustration of the way permahawks keep finding new arguments for their never-changing demand that we raise interest rates now now now. アンブローズ・エヴァンス
Deficits and Interest Rates — The History/July 25, 2013 Deficits and Interest Rates — The History 財政赤字と利子率――その歴史 I occasionally see people arguing that the historical association — that is, pre-crisis — between budget balances and interest rates presents some kind of challenge to conventional macroeconomics. (Oddly, you see this from both left and right; the Wall Street Journal, for example, was v
Stagnation Without End, Amen (Wonkish)/April 9, 2014, 8:03 AM Stagnation Without End, Amen (Wonkish) 終わりなき停滞、アーメン(専門的) In 1938 Alvin Hansen, who did more than anyone else to bring Keynesian economics to America, gave a landmark speech to the American Economic Association. (The speech is behind a paywall, but Tim Taylor has a good summary here.) In it, he made the case for “secular stagnation” — a
Musings on Minnesota Macro ミネソタ流マクロについて考える Miles Kimball and Noah Smith have a long piece on the shakeup at the Minneapolis Fed, where a couple of prominent freshwater macro people have been fired. Kimball and Smith carefully tiptoe about exactly what happened, and so will I — I hear stuff, but it’s second- or third-order hearsay, and not reliable. マイルズ・キンボールとノア・スミスが、ミネソタ連銀において著名な淡水派の経済学者数人が解雇された騒
Babaru Memories ばぶるの思い出 Lots of talk about China lately; and it’s still very worrisome. I am, however, mostly on vacation. But a brief note: what I haven’t seen many people mentioning is the obvious parallel, which is not so much to the US in the last decade as to Japan in the 1980s. 最近中国に関しての議論が盛んだ。それはすごく気にかかるものでもある。だけど、僕は今ほぼ休暇中だ。でも、少しだけ述べておこう:多くの人が語っていないと思うのは、中国は過去10年のアメリカよりも1980年代の日本と明らかに相似性がある
Bubblephobia and Monetary Policy/November 23, 2013, 8:42 am Bubblephobia and Monetary Policy バブル恐怖症と金融政策 How do you know that monetary policy is too loose? The textbook answer is that excessively expansionary monetary policy shows up in rising inflation; stable inflation means money is neither too loose nor too tight. This answer has, however, come under challenge from both sides. One side — the s
More Paleo-Keynesianism (Slightly Wonkish)/December 16, 2013, 10:55 am More Paleo-Keynesianism (Slightly Wonkish) さらに古ケインズ主義(ちょっと専門的) More followup on the state of Keynesian economics. In the Brad DeLong post I cited, he mentions as one of the key planks of New Keynesian (as opposed to old Keynesian) macroeconomics the rejection of the old-fashioned notion of a stable relationship between unemploy
The Death of High Inflation 高インフレの死 Back home, although I got a bit worried when the gate agent in Edinburgh announced a delay. At least I think that’s what she announced. The truth is that I couldn’t understand most of what she said. Ah, Scotland. エジンバラの空港職員が遅れると言った時はちょっと心配したんだが、なんとか家に帰ってこられた。少なくともその女性はそういったと思う。正直なところ、彼女の言っていることはほとんど分からなかった。ああ、スコットランドよ。 Anyway, blogging may be limited by various
【Bloomberg Businessweek】Paul Krugman Won the Crisis—and Lost the Argument Paul Krugman Won the Crisis—and Lost the Argument ポール・クルーグマンはこの危機に勝った――そして論争に負けた By Peter Coy September 12, 2013 A lot of people were tired of thinking about the financial crisis by 2012. Not Paul Krugman, the liberal Princeton University economist with a Nobel Prize and a New York Times op-ed column. That April he published
Summers the Shiftless シフトなきサマーズ A few months ago Christy Romer gave an excellent talk on the prospects for monetary policy in a liquidity trap, titled It Takes A Regime Shift (pdf). As many of us have noted, the central bank has very little direct traction when safe short-term rates are at the zero lower bound; maybe it can achieve something by buying lots of unconventional assets (“quantitative e
That Terrible Taper 恐怖の引き締め One of the odd things about the people arguing that we must raise interest rates to head off bubbles — Raghuram Rajan, Martin Feldstein, the BIS, and so on — is the near-universal assertion among this group that just a little rate increase can’t do any real harm. (Just a thin little mint). After all, rates are so low! バブルを回避するために利子率を上げるべきだと主張する人々――ラグナム・ラジャン、マーティン・フェルドシュ
Land of the Rising Sums ライジング・サムの国 The good news for Abenomics keeps rolling in; of course, it’s not over until the sumo wrestler sings, but there has clearly been a major change in Japanese psychology and expectations, which is what it’s all about. アベノミクスにとって良いニュースがどんどん入ってくる。もちろん、先のことはまだまだ分からないとはいえ、日本人の心理と期待には明らかに大きな変化があったが、それこそが肝心要の部分だ。 Why does this seem to be working as well as it is? Long ago
Monetarism Falls Short (Somewhat Wonkish)/April 28, 2013, 7:41 am Monetarism Falls Short (Somewhat Wonkish) マネタリズムには何かが足りない(多少専門的) The central debate over macroeconomic policy is, of course, between Keynesians and Austerians. And at this point the Keynesians have overwhelmingly won the debate everywhere except where it matters – the intellectual basis for austerity economics has collapsed, but act
Destructive Creativity 破滅的な独創性 Still thinking my way through the Reinhart-Rogoff debacle and related issues, and I think there’s an important point to be made here about the state of macroeconomics. ずっとラインハート・ロゴフ論文の大失態とそれに関連する事柄について自分なりに考えているんだが、マクロ経済学の現状に関して語られるべき重要な点があると思う。 You can already see quite a few people reacting to this affair by declaring that macro is humbug, we don’t know anything, a
Of Cockroaches and Commissioners/March 6, 2013, 3:54 am Of Cockroaches and Commissioners ゴキブリと委員の中で Kevin O’Rourke points me to the FT’s Brussels blog, which passes on the news that various officials at the European Commission are issuing outraged tweets against yours truly. You see, I’ve been mean to Olli Rehn. ケヴィン・オルークが指摘してくれたのだが、FT’s Brusselsブログで欧州委員会(EC)の様々な政府当局者がこの僕に対して怒りをぶちまけるツイートをしているというニュ
Why Don’t We Have Deflation?/March 5, 2013, 8:59 am Why Don’t We Have Deflation? なぜアメリカはデフレになっていないのか? Whenever you see a piece suggesting that the US economy has entered a “new normal” of slow growth, you’re likely to see someone making the argument that if the economy actually had lots of excess capacity, we should be seeing deflation. And the question of why we don’t have deflation is a good one
Data, Stimulus, and Human Nature/February 19, 2013, 9:34 am Data, Stimulus, and Human Nature データ、景気対策、そして人の性 David Brooks writes about the limitations of Big Data, and makes some good points. But he goes astray, I think, when he touches on a subject near and dear to my own data-driven heart: デヴィッド・ブルックスがビッグデータの限界について書いているが、いくつかいい点を突いている。でも、彼は、僕自身がデータを使用している親密な主題になると本質を外していると思う: For example, we’ve
Stanley and the Crazies スタンレーとキチガイ組 Dylan Matthews has an interesting piece suggesting that Stan Fischer might become our next Fed chairman. Fischer would indeed be highly qualified (as would Janet Yellen or Christy Romer, to name two other obvious candidates). But Matthews also suggests that Fischer might have a leg up in the confirmation process, because he has been a highly successful governor
2/8/2013 Paul Krugman, Professor at Princeton University ■安倍政権の経済政策をどう評価しますか? The broad outline looks right. Looks like he’s actually trying to do the right things. He’s doing what Japan should have been doing a long time ago. The details are hard to evaluate. For an outsider, it’s hard to know. But the idea that Japan should have a short-term fiscal stimulus to get the economy moving, coupled wit
Rate Expectations (Wonkish)/February 4, 2013, 9:01 am Rate Expectations (Wonkish) 利子率予想(専門的) FT Alphaville links to a puzzling piece by Maasaki Kanno, who argues that the relative success of Abenomics in Japan, so far, reflects a divergence in expectations between the currency and bond markets: 日本でこれまでのところアベノミクスが比較的成功しているのは、通貨市場と債券市場が乖離していることを反映したものであると主張する菅野雅明による困惑する記事にFT Alphavilleブログがリンクを貼っている:
Calvinist Monetary Economics/January 30, 2013, 8:01 am Calvinist Monetary Economics カルビン主義的金融経済学 Aha. In his latest op-ed, John Taylor comes out as a full-fledged monetary Calvinist. No, not a disciple of John Calvin, the preacher — a disciple of Calvin of Calvin and Hobbes. ああ。ジョン・テイラーの最新のオプエド(署名入り論説)を見ると、彼は完全な金融カルビン主義者になってしまった。伝道師のジョン・カルヴァンの弟子じゃなくて、「カルビンとホッブス」のカルビンの弟子。 Way back when, Mike Koncza
Macro Trumps Micro マクロはミクロを凌駕する Or, as the late James Tobin used to say, it takes a lot of Harberger triangles to fill an Okun gap. 後年ジェームズ・トービンが言ったように、オークンギャップを埋めるにはたくさんのハーバーガーの三角形が必要になる。 Dean Baker catches David Ignatius suggesting that trade liberalization can provide enough economic boost to offset the effects of austerity. As Dean says, the arithmetic is totally off — almost two orders of mag
Inaction is the Greatest Risk (Wonkish)/December 15, 2012, 8:32 am Inaction is the Greatest Risk (Wonkish) 何もやらないことは最大のリスク(専門的) Brad DeLong is exasperated with people who insist that the Fed’s modest moves toward more support for the economy are “risky”, but can’t explain why in any intelligible fashion. I agree. I also agree with Brad that the starting point for any discussion has to be that righ
When Confidence Hurts 信頼性が傷つく時 A skeptical correspondent asks whether I really truly believe what I’m saying in my post about how an attack by the bond vigilantes is actually expansionary when you have your own floating currency. How does this jibe with the experience of the Asian financial crisis of the 1980s, he asks? And do I really believe that Japan would be better off if markets became less
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